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A geospatial modeling analysis of travel-time, bicycles, and HIV elimination in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi
December 4, 2019 @ 4:15 pm - 5:15 pm
UNAIDS has proposed an ambitious strategy for ending the HIV pandemic. Their strategy depends upon achieving a treatment coverage goal of 90% by 2030. However, distance to healthcare and lack of transportation are major barriers to accessing HIV treatment in SSA. I will use data-based geospatial modeling to determine their potential impact as barriers to elimination in Malawi. I will address two specific questions: How much time would people living with HIV (PLHIV) need to spend travelling to access treatment in order for Malawi to achieve UNAIDS’ goal of 90% coverage? Could providing bicycles to rural communities help eliminate HIV?
Our results show that it will only be possible to achieve UNAIDS’ 90% coverage goal in Malawi if many of the PLHIV (who have yet to initiate treatment) are willing, and able, to spend a great deal of time travelling to access treatment. Additionally, they show that making bicycles available to PLHIV in rural areas has the potential to make the 90% target goal more attainable, and hence to help eliminate HIV in Malawi.