Applied Math Seminar: Evan Rosenman (CMC)
Estella 1021 (Emmy Noether Room), Pomona College Claremont, CA, United StatesTitle: Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the "Logit Shift": Why Does It Work, and When Can It Be Expected to Work Well? Abstract: In the context of election analysis, researchers frequently face the "recalibration problem." That is: they must reconcile individual-level vote probabilities, modeled prior to the election, with vote totals observed in each precinct […]