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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for Claremont Center for the Mathematical Sciences
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261005T161500
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261005T171500
DTSTAMP:20260910T053858Z
CREATED:20260910T053858Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260910T053858Z
UID:10002255-1791216900-1791220500@colleges.claremont.edu
SUMMARY:If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10\,000 Elections\, Maybe it’s the Wrong Model (Danny Ebanks\, Cal Tech)
DESCRIPTION:Political scientists forecast elections\, not primarily to satisfy public interest\, but to validate statistical models used for estimating quantities of scholarly interest. Although scholars have learned a great deal from these models\, they can be embarrassingly overconfident: Events that should occur once in 10\,000 elections occur almost every year\, and even those that should occur once in a five-quadrillion elections are sometimes observed. We develop the first generative statistical model of all US federal legislative elections for the U.S. House (1946–2024) and Senate (1954–2024) and validate it with extensive out-of-sample tests. We find that even as the incumbency advantage rises and falls\, voting patterns nationalize\, and heresthetic maneuvering remake candidacies and campaigns\, the fundamental quantities of interest related to American legislative elections remain constant over eighty years\, including but not limited to the probability of incumbent defeat\, the magnitude and dispersion of candidate effects\, the midterm penalty\, and the partisan bias of electoral maps. Most striking\, we show that the same set of structural parameters describes both U.S. House and Senate elections\, implying a universal data-generation process for American legislative elections in the postwar era.
URL:https://colleges.claremont.edu/ccms/event/if-a-statistical-model-predicts-that-common-events-should-occur-only-once-in-10000-elections-maybe-its-the-wrong-model-danny-ebanks-cal-tech/
LOCATION:Emmy Noether Room\, Estella 1021\, Pomona College\,\, 610 N. College Ave.\, Claremont\, CA\, 91711\, United States
CATEGORIES:Applied Math Seminar
ORGANIZER;CN="Ami Radunskaya":MAILTO:aradunskaya@pomona.edu
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261006T121500
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261006T131000
DTSTAMP:20260903T162807Z
CREATED:20260903T162807Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260903T162807Z
UID:10002249-1791288900-1791292200@colleges.claremont.edu
SUMMARY:Permutation Jones Polynomials (Sam Nelson\, CMC)
DESCRIPTION:The Jones Polynomial is an important invariant of knots with applications in physics\, quantum computation and more. In this talk I will introduce a family of generalizations of the Jones polynomial associated to permutations of finite sets and discuss their properties.
URL:https://colleges.claremont.edu/ccms/event/permutation-jones-polynomials-sam-nelson-cmc/
LOCATION:Estella 1021 (Emmy Noether Room)\, Pomona College\, Claremont\, CA\, 91711\, United States
CATEGORIES:Algebra / Number Theory / Combinatorics Seminar
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261006T161500
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261006T171500
DTSTAMP:20261002T220229Z
CREATED:20261002T220229Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20261002T220229Z
UID:10002355-1791303300-1791306900@colleges.claremont.edu
SUMMARY:Claremont Topology Seminar: Puttipong Pongtanapaisan (Pitzer College)
DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Puttipong Pongtanapaisan (Pitzer) \nTitle: Introduction to Quantum Invariants of 3-Manifolds\n \nAbstract: The previous speakers showed us how to distinguish knots and links using techniques involving quantum groups. I will start by explaining briefly why 3-manifolds\, much like the universe we live in\, can actually be represented as knots and links with numbers assigned to each component. Furthermore\, diagrams of equivalent 3-manifolds differ by a sequence of moves that are highly similar to Reidemeister moves. To study 3-manifolds\, we will adapt the techniques discussed by previous speakers to come up with a quantity unchanged by these new moves. I will compute the invariant for some classic examples and draw lots of pictures. \n_______ \nWe especially welcome all undergraduates and graduate students to attend topology seminar! \nRoom: Roberts South 103
URL:https://colleges.claremont.edu/ccms/event/claremont-topology-seminar-puttip-pitzer/
LOCATION:Roberts South 103\, Roberts Hall South 103\, Claremont McKenna College\, E 8th St\, Claremont\, CA\, 91711\, United States
CATEGORIES:Topology Seminar
ORGANIZER;CN="Bahar Acu":MAILTO:Bahar_Acu@pitzer.edu
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261007T161500
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20261007T171500
DTSTAMP:20261001T184747Z
CREATED:20261001T184747Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20261001T184747Z
UID:10002353-1791389700-1791393300@colleges.claremont.edu
SUMMARY:CCMS Colloquium: Distribution-Based Optimal Asset Selling — Sixian Jin (CSU San Marcos)
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: In this talk\, we study the optimal timing of selling a risky asset within the distribution builder framework. Instead of specifying a utility function or risk-aversion parameter\, this approach allows an investor to express preferences directly through a desired distribution of the selling price. Mathematically\, the problem is closely related to the Skorokhod embedding problem\, where a target distribution is attained by stopping a diffusion process. We first discuss the distribution builder problem for general one-dimensional diffusions and then extend the framework to incorporate the possibility of ruin\, which places additional restrictions on the distributions that can be attained. We characterize the set of distributions attainable before ruin and consider two related optimization problems: finding the attainable distribution closest to an unattainable target\, and improving an attainable target under first-order stochastic dominance constraints. Using an extended f-divergence framework\, we establish existence and uniqueness results\, provide analytic characterizations of the solutions\, and illustrate the approach with numerical examples. \nSixian Jin is an Assistant Professor of Mathematics at California State University San Marcos. He graduated from Claremont Graduate University in 2017 under the supervision of Prof. Henry Schellhorn. His research interests include stochastic analysis\, stochastic differential equations\, and their applications in mathematical finance. In addition to his research\, he is actively involved in undergraduate and graduate education in probability\, statistics\, and financial mathematics. He is also interested in the use of artificial intelligence in mathematics education\, particularly in exploring how AI tools can be effectively incorporated into the teaching and learning of financial mathematics and statistics. \n\n\n\nFor questions about the event\, please contact your CCMS Colloquium chairs: \nProf. Robert Cass (Robert.Cass@ClaremontMcKenna.edu) or Prof. Qidi Peng (Qidi.Peng@cgu.edu) \nFor logistical questions\, contact Maxwell Kooiker (Maxwell.Kooiker@cgu.edu)\, the CCMS Colloquium Assistant.
URL:https://colleges.claremont.edu/ccms/event/ccms-colloquium-distribution-based-optimal-asset-selling-sixian-jin-csu-san-marcos/
LOCATION:Burkle 16\, Claremont Graduate University\, 1021 N. Dartmouth Ave.\, Claremont\, CA\, 91711\, United States
CATEGORIES:Colloquium
ORGANIZER;CN="Qidi Peng":MAILTO:Qidi.Peng@cgu.edu
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