{"id":2804,"date":"2022-08-30T16:10:08","date_gmt":"2022-08-30T23:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/colleges.claremont.edu\/ccms\/?post_type=tribe_events&#038;p=2804"},"modified":"2022-09-14T14:57:28","modified_gmt":"2022-09-14T21:57:28","slug":"ami-radunskaya","status":"publish","type":"tribe_events","link":"https:\/\/colleges.claremont.edu\/ccms\/event\/ami-radunskaya\/","title":{"rendered":"Between Yes and No: making decisions under uncertainty (Prof. Ami Radunskaya)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Title:\u00a0<\/strong>Between Yes and No: making decisions under uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Speaker:<\/strong> Ami Radunskaya, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Pomona College<\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract:<\/strong>\u00a0Often we attempt to answer a question with a \u201cyes\u201d or a \u201cno\u201d by developing predictive models (\u201cWill the small remaining population of axolotls survive outside of their native wetlands?\u201d) or by implementing binary classifiers (\u201cIs this a cat or a dog?\u201d). However, the answers that are provided by our models are often given in terms of probabilities.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Even more confusing, different models &#8211; equally good according to accuracy metrics &#8211; can produce conflicting answers. <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>In this talk, I will explore these issues and discuss their implications.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>How do we interpret an answer that is neither \u201cyes\u201d nor \u201cno\u201d? <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>For example, a PCR test for COVID yields a probability.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>How does the choice of threshold affect the individual?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>How does it affect policy decisions or the course of the disease? How can we disentangle the predictions given by competing models, i.e. how can we deal with predictive multiplicity? <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>For example, if two models disagree on whether or not someone is a loan risk, which one should be trusted?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Which groups are most affected?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>What new metrics can be used to compare models?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>A California native, Professor Radunskaya received her Ph.D. in Mathematics from Stanford University.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>She has been a faculty member in the Math Department at Pomona College since 1994. <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>In her research, she specializes\u00a0in ergodic theory, dynamical systems, and applications to various &#8220;real-world&#8221; problems.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Some current research projects involve mathematical models of cancer immunotherapy, developing strategies for targeted drug delivery to the brain, and studying stochastic perturbations of dynamical systems.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Professor Radunskaya believes strongly in the power of collaboration and that everyone can learn to enjoy mathematics; as President of the Association of Women in Mathematics, she encouraged collaborative research, international outreach, and cooperation between all the mathematical societies.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>She is the President of the EDGE (Enhancing Diversity in Graduate Education) Foundation, whose summer program won a &#8220;Mathematics Program that Makes a Difference&#8221; award from the American Mathematics Society\u00a0in 2007, and a Presidential Award for Excellence in Science, Mathematics and Engineering Mentoring (PAESMEM) in 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Professor Radunskaya was\u00a0recently elected as a Fellow of the Association for Women in Mathematics and the American Mathematical Society, and she is the recipient of several awards, including a WIG teaching award in<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>2012 and the 2017 AAAS Mentor-of-the-year\u00a0award. She was featured in the documentary \u201cThe Empowerment Project: ordinary women doing extraordinary things\u201d, as well as in the recent book by Talithia Williams:<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cPower in<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Numbers: the Rebel Women of Mathematics\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Title:\u00a0Between Yes and No: making decisions under uncertainty. Speaker: Ami Radunskaya, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Pomona College Abstract:\u00a0Often we attempt to answer a question with a \u201cyes\u201d or a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":165,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"_tribe_events_status":"","_tribe_events_status_reason":"","_tribe_events_is_hybrid":"","_tribe_events_is_virtual":"","_tribe_events_virtual_video_source":"","_tribe_events_virtual_embed_video":"","_tribe_events_virtual_linked_button_text":"","_tribe_events_virtual_linked_button":"","_tribe_events_virtual_show_embed_at":"","_tribe_events_virtual_show_embed_to":[],"_tribe_events_virtual_show_on_event":"","_tribe_events_virtual_show_on_views":"","_tribe_events_virtual_url":"","footnotes":"","_tec_slr_enabled":"","_tec_slr_layout":""},"tags":[],"tribe_events_cat":[12],"class_list":["post-2804","tribe_events","type-tribe_events","status-publish","hentry","tribe_events_cat-colloquium","cat_colloquium"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Between Yes and No: making decisions under uncertainty (Prof. Ami Radunskaya) - Claremont Center for the Mathematical Sciences<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/colleges.claremont.edu\/ccms\/?post_type=tribe_events&p=2804\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Between Yes and No: making decisions under uncertainty (Prof. Ami Radunskaya) - Claremont Center for the Mathematical Sciences\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Title:\u00a0Between Yes and No: making decisions under uncertainty. 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