Applied Math Seminar: Tin Thien Phan (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Title: Understanding SARS-CoV-2 viral rebounds with and without treatments.

Abstract: In most instances, the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mirror the patterns of an acute infection, with viral load rapidly peaking around 5 days post-infection and subsequently clearing within 2 weeks. However, some individuals show signs of viral recrudescence of up to 10000 viral RNA copies/mL shortly following viral remission. These instances of viral resurgence, distinct from long COVID, are generally resolved within four weeks post-infection and have been observed across varying treatment statuses, vaccination statuses, and viral strains. In this presentation, I will review existing evidence of transient viral rebound and demonstrate that a class of dynamic models that incorporates virus-immune interaction accurately describes transient viral rebound dynamics under different treatment scenarios, including those untreated. While these models all share a simple structure with a unique globally-asymptomatic-stable disease-free equilibrium, the most exciting and relevant aspect hides within their transient phase and remains largely unexplored.