Week of Events
CFTP: the algorithm ERGM deserves, but not the one it needs right now (Matt Moores, University of Wollongong)
CFTP: the algorithm ERGM deserves, but not the one it needs right now (Matt Moores, University of Wollongong)
The exchange algorithm enables Bayesian posterior inference for models with intractable likelihoods, such as Ising, Potts, or exponential random graph models (ERGM). Crucially, this algorithm relies on an auxiliary Markov chain to obtain an unbiased sample from the generative distribution of the model. It was originally proposed to use coupling from the past (CFTP) for […]
Turning probability into polynomials (Mark Huber, CMC)
Turning probability into polynomials (Mark Huber, CMC)
Moment generating functions (Laplace transforms) are a means for transforming probability problems into problems involving polynomials. Here I will concentrate on the binomial distribution, and use the mgf to link this distributions probabilities directly to the binomial theorem. The mgf is also a key ingredient in Chernoff bounds, which give upper bounds on the tail […]
The Legacy of Rudolph Kalman (Andrew Stuart, Caltech)
The Legacy of Rudolph Kalman (Andrew Stuart, Caltech)
Abstract: In 1960 Rudolph Kalman published what is arguably the first paper to develop a systematic, principled approach to the use of data to improve the predictive capability of mathematical models. As our ability to gather data grows at an enormous rate, the importance of this work continues to grow too. The lecture will describe this paper, and developments that […]
Crossing the Threshold: The Role of Demographic Stochasticity in the Evolution of Cooperation (Tom LoFaro, Gustavus Adolphus College)
Crossing the Threshold: The Role of Demographic Stochasticity in the Evolution of Cooperation (Tom LoFaro, Gustavus Adolphus College)
When Charles Darwin began writing “On the Origin of Species” he knew that explaining cooperative behavior in the context of “survival of the fittest” was problematic. In fact, this apparent contradiction puzzled ecologists for many years after. In this talk we will discuss a mathematical model of the evolution of cooperation developed by Doebeli, Blarer, […]